The various federal, state, and local government agencies often collect and analyze data independent from each other and other organizations. These distinct datasets often prove to be very useful when used in conjunction with each other, especially when incorporated into an inclusive model. A cumulative effects model tracking landuse practices and natural processes centralizes the data and provides a more comprehensive approach to resource planning and long-term monitoring.

Recognizing the utility of such an approach the Kenai Watershed Forum in conjunction with the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge has been creating a cumulative effects model for the entire Kenai Peninsula. KWF has been working closely with Dr. John Morton, who initiated the project, and other refuge staff who collectively have been instrumental in contributing staff time, expertise, data, and monetary support needed to adapt such a model to the entire Kenai Peninsula. The model that was ultimately chosen for customization and application is called ALCES or the Alaska Landscape Cumulative Effects Simulator, developed by Dr. Brad Stelfox. It is a holistic, spatially-stratified tool incorporating land use practices and natural processes acting over the landscape of the Kenai Peninsula.

ALCES quantitatively projects changes in dynamic landscapes based on various scenarios set by the user. The scenarios are run in simulations of 1 year per second up to 50 years. Resource managers can set scenarios to mimic one or many projected management practices while simultaneously considering likely future natural process trends such as climate change and insect outbreaks regimes. ALCES can also to track trends in disturbance regimes, wildlife populations and habitat, or flows of employment, revenue, and expenses related to the landuses. The results display the positive and negative consequences of the chosen management plan or likely changes in forest composition and wildlife habitat. By manipulating the scenarios the economic, social, or environmental costs can be mitigated and/or the benefits enhanced. Local resource managers and planners can then implement practices accordingly to achieve the best desired outcome. When complete, the model will provide a functional tool to ALCES consortium members, who were offered training and a copy of the Kenai Peninsula model.

ALCES operates partially on quantitative data extracted from a Geographic Information System (GIS) that has been developed for the KWF. The GIS is a seamless coverage of the entire peninsula including vegetation, hydrology, land use, and other data pertinent to the model. Other quantitative data not in GIS format that was also incorporated in the model include meteorological records, data from the utilities, energy, and forestry sectors, and general community and economic data.

Development of the model proceeded with the collaboration of many of the local land holding agencies and other interested parties. These entities, which form the ALCES Consortium as indicated in the Memorandum of Understanding include the Chugach National Forest, Homer Soil and Water Conservation District, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Kenai Peninsula Borough, Kenaitze Indian Tribe, Ninilchik Traditional Council, Port Graham Village Council, Seldovia Village Tribe, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, The Wilderness Society, the Kachemak Heritage Land Trust, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Kenai Watershed Forum. Expertise to populate the model was derived from many of these agencies as well as state and private agencies.

For more general information on the ALCES model, please visit the website at http://www.foremtech.com.