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2006 ALCES Final Presentation

We held the final presentation for the functional version of ALCES with the developer, Dr. Brad Stelfox, on May 23, 2006 at the Kenai River Center. The presentation was designed to show the public how it works and what the big drivers of change are likely to be on the peninsula.

We ran the several “What-if” scenarios below through ALCES to demonstrate the effects on select indicators.

Select indicators from these scenarios told us that some of the biggest drivers of change are:

1. The human population will more than double in the next half century. So will the infrastructure.
2. The current emphasis on rural residential lifestyles is leading to a rapid loss of natural landscape and, from the perspective of infrastructure is expensive to build and maintain. Who will pay for this infrastructure?
3. Increases in the human population and attendant road and culvert networks will lead to significant declines in quality and quantity of habitat for Coho, brown bear, and moose.
4. Climate change is projected to lead to a gradual, though significant change in landscape composition on the Peninsula

The final Powerpoint presentation is broken into three parts and can be downloaded in .pdf format from the links below.

*** Please note these .pdf files are large and may take a few minutes to download. ***

Part I – History of developing ALCES to fit the Kenai Peninsula and select inputs
Part II—How ALCES works
Part III – Indicator inputs and outputs; big drivers of change on the Kenai Peninsula  

For more information regarding the cumulative effects model, please contact Stephanie Sims at 907-260-5449 or stephanie@kenaiwatershed.org.


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